A look at the enemy (An apology from Pakistan?)

A particular time of the year is never a prerequisite to write about ones motherland, people and sovereignty. Yet, there are some events, historical and immensely significant, brings back such deluge of emotions that it feels almost imperative to come up with words to match the overwhelming thoughts.  26th day of March without any doubt is such a day for any informed Bangladeshi who has a decent idea about the history of the birth of Bangladesh. In the year 1971, on this particular night the Pakistani soldiers had attacked unsuspecting Bangladeshis in their own land with deadly force. Obviously the long term outcome of that ruthless action had only worked in our favour as in only 9 months an independent and sovereign Bangladesh was born. The thick headed military leaders of West Pakistan had concocted a heinous plan to suppress the Bengalis with genocide and carnage, little they knew how such ineffective strategy would bounce back to hound them shortly.  However, it wouldn't be fair not to admit that such quick outcome was possible due to timely intervention of India. Without their participation in this war it would be difficult to assume, realistically, that the independence of Bangladesh would happen so soon after a formal war started.

Anyway, I have no plan to write about our independence war today. Rather I plan to focus on the other side of that war - the side that consisted of the Pakistani soldiers and general population who all together carry the burden of the guilt for that totally wrong war often knowing very little of the actual facts.

I was six during the war. My dad was an army doctor. We along with many others got stuck in West Pakistan. We returned home after couple of years of independence once the prisoner exchange program brokered by India went through. Anyway, during our stay in Pakistan we were moved from one place to another, met many locals, often becoming friends. I can not remember any situation where they had treated us in a way that may be considered rude or insulting. *

Since returning to Bangladesh I did not have much opportunity to see a truly Pakistani citizen beside the Bihari refugees who had been eager to move to Pakistan since independence. To be honest, over the years I have read, written and spoken quite a bit about our independence war but never before had I thought of looking at it from a completely different perspective - how does it look at the other side of this coin? The Pakistanis who are blamed generally for all the war time brutalities, murders, rapes, destructions - how do they feel about it? When I lived back in Bangladesh there seemed to be very little need for such investigation. What’s the use? However, once I moved to America and later to Canada, and had the opportunity to get to know many Pakistanis my mindset has changed. I want to share a few of these encounters.

During my studies in the Oakland University located in Michigan eight of us bachelors were sharing a two bedroom apartment. Beside me there was a Pakistani guy and the rest were Indians. Pakistani Usuf who I believe was a Punjabi and I was having issues from the very beginning, practically on all matters. One time during an intense argument he suddenly blurted out, "What happened to all the kids who were fathered by the Pakistani soldiers in your country during the war?" 

It is not too hard to realize that his intentions to bring it up were not very nice. I had found myself terribly angry, was at the brink of getting into a physical fight, when my Indian friends intervened. During the independence war of Bangladesh an estimated two hundred thousand females of all ages were violated in Bangladesh and it is quite difficult to believe that anybody in his sane mind can poke fun at that. Not sure exactly what had prompted Usuf to say something so out of line and sickening. He wasn't generally a bad person and such remarks were totally unexpected, even from him. It was clear to me that either he did not have a good understanding of our independence war or he had been fed incorrect information. The answer became clear later. 

In the year 2002 when we immigrated to Canada from USA, we came to Toronto first. Like most folks who are from the Indian subcontinent we made our way to Scarborough, rented an apartment in a high rise building. There was nothing to eat at home, so we walked to the nearest strip mall just across the road and stepped into a Subway restaurant. The owner and the only attendant of the store, a middle-aged Indian looking man, greeted us smilingly and said to me something in Hindi or Urdu. Thanks to all the Bollywood movies I had some understanding of Hindi but that was not enough to know the difference between Hindi and Urdu.

I smiled back apologetically and responded, "Sorry brother, I don't understand Hindi very well."

"I didn't speak in Hindi.” The man smilingly responded. “It was Urdu. You must be from Bangladesh. I find many from Bangladesh are quite fluent in Urdu."

I smiled back. "Personally I have no fascination for Urdu. Where in Pakistan are you from?"

"Karachi." As he fixed our sandwiches he looked at me through his heavy glasses and almost shyly said," Who had even imagined that after all the massacres that my country did in Bangladesh during 1971 war we could stand here today and speak like friends?"

I was pleasantly surprised. Yet once more I learned not to judge everybody in the same stereotyped way. Since then, over the years, I have met many others from Pakistan; a few had even become close friends. I have learned how the educational system in Pakistan have been actively trying to establish a theory of conspiracy for the separation of the two Pakistan by catering false and historically incorrect information to their young generation.

Some of the major theories concocted by them are: Hindu teachers were spreading anti-Pakistan teachings; India had instigated it to secure the interest of the 10% Hindus who lived in Bangladesh; Soviet Union took especial interest due to degradation of relationship with Pakistan after the later agreed to allow America to create a military base on its land; etc. The educational text do provide some description of the war, but skilfully avoids mentioning the massacres that were carried on by the Pakistani army with the collaboration of the anti-independence forces residing in Bangladesh like Rajakar, Al-badar etc. However, the good thing is that the ordinary Pakistanis are eager to break out of the lies. A few days back the ex-cricketer turned politician Imran khan had demanded a state sponsored apology to Bangladesh for all the atrocities carried on during the 1971 war. Such apology definitely won’t have any role in wiping off all the scars that were created but would start a timely procedure of healing the wound that still exists between the millions of people of both the countries.   

*I have a published book named Damama describing my experiences as a boy during the independence war of Bangladesh. The book was published by Anannya prokashoni. An English version is on the way. This book can be the first read for many kids of Bangladeshi descent to get a simple but factual history of the birth of Bangladesh from the perspective of a little boy.

Housing Bubble Burst: American Style

The real estate market had been going through ups and downs in various parts of the world for a while however it probably wasn’t very noticeable until things started to spiral downward in America around the year 2005. Many had guessed correctly even during the dot com upheaval that there was a bubble forming in the real estate market. Things were being written and discussed in small scale, but nobody seemed to pay much attention. I guess when time is good why would anybody listen to such warnings? It is only then when the goliath comes crushing down people takes notice. If you are one of them who cannot make sense of the circumstances that caused the once glorious real estate market to crash down practically to dust in some parts of the country almost overnight you are not alone. Even today I doubt the so called experts can clearly explain the phenomena. Yes, it is possible to identify several primary reasons but narrowing them down can become a matter of individual perspective.

I am not an economist, my relationship with economics has been only on printed papers as I  read various columns often contributed by reputed economists to get some in depth analysis. Unfortunately time has changed, my confidence in them have waned away. As a result I have started to do my own analysis to see if I can come up with a layman proof solution to explain the mystery of the housing market fallout. One thing that had always baffled me is the situation where a house sells more than the seller asking for! Of course such anomaly happens when several buyers bid for the property – a very common observation during the peak time of real estate in America. I was living in the Boston area during that time working on a visa and thankfully stayed away from the temptation of being a home owner primarily because I did not yet have residency. However, that did not prove to be enough deterrent for some of my acquantances who had bought houses and later found them at the wrong end of the economy after losing their jobs. Many ended up forced out of the country leaving behind everything they had – house, car, furniture etc.

Anyway, lets get back to the curious point of a house selling more than the market price. It is not very dificult to figure out that the buyers were convinced that the ultimate value of the property they were about to purchase would eventually grow to such a height that their investment would return with a hefty profit. It didn’t happen, in most part of America, as we know now. Let alone profit, many homeowners either lost their homes to foreclosure or saw their equity evaporate with some even having to start their life all over again.

Now, lets try to identify the primary reasons that led up to one of the biggest man made economic disasters in American history despite being overcrowded with all kind of financial experts. 

Here are the events in chronologial order:

• Due to the prosperity of dot com there were too much wealth floating in the market. Even though the wealth did not get equally distributed but still it trickled down to all level, more or less. As a result the overall standard of life increased, people had more buying power, there was a sense of life in the economy – one might wish for such good times to stay forever.
• As the buying power of the general population increases so does the price of the essentials and especially the land which evidently brings up the house prices. 
• On and after 1997 when dot com burst had started some prosperous areas took a huge beatings as a result many jobs were lost. Many had to declare bankruptcy. Many others lost a fortune in the share market. As a whole the prosperous market suddenly turned into a dead field, the so called wealth had turned into dirt.
• In this kind of situation government is required to take some measures to help recovery of the economy. As a result they are always prone to reduce the prime lending rate as this rate can pump in new life into the economy by encouraging people to take advantage of the low rates. With the rates low the borrowers are required to pay less as monthly repayment installations and are left with some extra money in hand which they can spend on other items in the market, increasing consumer spending. Starting from the year 2000 American government continued to reduce the lending rate from 9% and went down to 4% by the end of 2003.  
• At this point two things happened
• People who had borrowed for higher rate refinanced their properties and received substantial amount back. As a result they now had quite a bit of disposable income which streamed into the market.
• Another group of people who had reasonably safer jobs or wealth from other sources used their equity to buy even bigger houses. As a result demand for houses increased considerably pulling the price up as expected.
• At this point started a new chapter in the epic story which many believe caused the actual havoc in the end.
• As the interest rate went down many people became interested in purchasing houses, many of them neither had a good credit history nor the necessary money to deposit as a down payment. However, after the dot com burst as the market was down the businesses especially banks and investment companies were eager to pick up just about anything to bring back life into the market and rip off some profit. They eventually started to lend money to these high risk clients for zero down payments often allowing their representatives to resort to questionable means to show this potential clientele as eligible borrowers.
• Many people who only had a modest earning took this advantage and became owner of large houses and expensive cars. As a result they started to spend practically all their earnings as living cost, about 80% of which went to the mortgage payment and other house related costs like taxes, utilities, maintenance etc. Some even went on to expensive vacations into the cherished destinations. They were basically living on the edge of a sword.
• What happened next is not very difficult to understand. To describe in plain words
• Anything that goes up must come down – accounting for gravity. Same happened in real estate. When the prices started to reach ridiculously high level the land pricing became target of revaluation immediately causing house price adjustments and resulted into drastic devaluation of many high priced properties.
• At the same time to reduce inflation government had to increase the lending interest rate which went up to 7% around the end of 2007. This created another issue. As the interest rate increased the monthly mortgage payment went up too, in many cases this amount became too much for the homeowners to pay who already lived on the edge. As a result they simply walked out from their houses knowing that they risked very little to lose as they had practically no money invested in the house. Banks and investment companies now got stuck with many foreclosed houses with market filled with mostly sellers and few buyers. It eventually became so devastating that many companies could not even continue to operate while others required substantial government assistance to exist. Example – Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
• From there on things continued to go down. The executives powering the banks and mortgage companies might have thought they had created a good herd of cash cows who would continue to pay interests on their long term mortgages keeping the cash flow in the market going forever but in reality their lack of sincerity, appropriate understanding of the market and possibly sheer greed had thrown the whole balance into a complete chaos causing the market to crash.  

To summarize, one might simply state that if it wasn’t for the greedy banking and investment sectors things might have not turn so bleak in such short time. Clearly the executives of the failed companies appeared to conspire against the general population showing total disregard for appropriate financial practice. As a result house market in America still going through a slow and painful recovery process with no guarantee on its eventual success.